Middle East Insider · Issue 050 · Friday, August 28, 2026

The Gulf at Six Months

Good morning. Six months ago today, American and Israeli aircraft opened the campaign against Iran, and Iran answered by firing at the states that host American forces. This brief opens with those neighbors: what six months of Iranian fire have cost Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, and what each capital has done about it, in a survey that keeps to the record. Then the news. CENTCOM’s commander says the strait’s shipping lanes are clear of Iranian mines, and traffic is still a fraction of normal. Qatar’s prime minister left Tehran with a list of Iranian conditions rather than a corridor, and the White House says no negotiations are happening. Treasury designated Palestine Action, Israel told Washington that the Lebanese army’s pilot has failed, and Kuwait signed a defense agreement with Pakistan. All of it below, plus six new Forum pieces. This evening, a premium Long View: my assessment of the next six months, in twenty-five fronts.

This is the morning brief. This evening a premium Long View follows, marking six months of the war: my assessment of the next six months, organized as twenty-five fronts the coalition has to manage between now and February, from Dubai’s front companies to Beijing’s refineries. Yesterday’s two editions, The Corridor That Isn’t and The Western Front, are live.

The fall briefings begin Tuesday in Boston. Dates, cities, and seating are in the events card at the bottom of this brief.

Six months, five capitals.

Six months ago today, the first American and Israeli aircraft crossed into Iran, and the Islamic Republic answered by firing at the states that host American forces. The Congressional Research Service put the record through mid-May in one sentence: “Between February 28 and May 17, Iran fired more than 6,700 drones and missiles at the GCC states,” nearly half of them at the United Arab Emirates, and by May 20 “approximately 28 non-U.S. nationals reportedly had been killed in all six GCC states” (CRS). The six governments answered in one document on July 9: “any attack against any member state is considered a direct attack on all GCC states” (GCC Secretariat). This is the record, state by state, and it carries no grade.

Saudi Arabia. Iranian fire reached the American embassy in Riyadh on March 2 and Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27, where at least 15 US troops were hurt (AP). With Hormuz shut, every barrel of seaborne crude left from Yanbu in April and May; the economy shrank 4.8 percent in the second quarter after the largest quarterly deficit in eight years (AFP, Al-Monitor, AGSI). Since July 20 the Houthis have declared Saudi ports closed and struck tankers off Yanbu (ACLED). Riyadh’s answers: a 14-nation maritime coalition on July 30, a civil nuclear agreement the President has tied to the Abraham Accords, an August 1 call to the White House urging dialogue, and the Mecca pact with Turkey and Pakistan on August 7 (NYT, CNN, CBS, Atlantic Council).

The United Arab Emirates. The most-targeted state on the map: more than 530 ballistic missiles, 26 cruise missiles, and 2,200 drones by its Defense Ministry’s figures, with at least a dozen killed and more than 200 injured (WINEP, The National). Dubai’s airport carried 31 percent fewer passengers in the first half of the year, and roughly one British resident in eight has left (Reuters, CNBC). Abu Dhabi closed its Tehran embassy on March 1, left OPEC after 59 years, received Iron Dome batteries and Israeli crews in May, stayed out of the Mecca pact and the Saudi fleet, and on August 18 halted “all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions” with the partner that supplied 30.6 percent of Iran’s imports (UAE MoFA, Enerdata, Reuters, MoFA, MEF Observer). Ten days on, no implementing regulation has been published.

Qatar. The March 18-19 strikes on Ras Laffan took 17 percent of LNG export capacity out of service for three to five years (Reuters). Eighteen LNG cargoes have sailed in six months against 509 a year earlier, about $24 billion in lost sales, and the government moved about $13 billion into local banks to steady them (Reuters, AGBI). Doha sent Article 51 letters to the Security Council in July, joined the Saudi coalition, called the new US sanctions “unilateral,” and sent its prime minister to Tehran on Thursday, the first such visit of the war (Qatar MoFA, Alhurra, Euronews).

Bahrain. The Fifth Fleet’s headquarters took fire on the first night, and the Sitra refinery declared force majeure on March 9 (Stars and Stripes, Argus). Manama wrote Security Council Resolution 2817 condemning the attacks and passed it 13 to 0 on March 11 (UN). Moody’s moved the outlook to negative with debt near 147 percent of GDP, the economy shrank 3.8 percent in the first quarter, and a $5.4 billion Emirati swap line backs the dinar (Reuters, AGBI, CBB). On Tuesday the finance minister told Secretary Bessent that Hormuz “must not be used as an instrument of economic pressure or extortion” (Arab News).

Kuwait. Six American soldiers died on March 1 when a drone struck an operations center at Shuaiba port, and a drone attack on the airport on June 3 killed one and wounded 63 (AP, Reuters). In July Iran hit the power and water plants four nights running, and Kuwaitis rationed air conditioning in a country that draws about 90 percent of its drinking water from desalination (AP, AFP). The economy shrank 4.6 percent in the first quarter, and the oil company’s chief calls this the “toughest and biggest crisis” since the 1990 invasion (AFP). Kuwait pressed with the UAE and Bahrain for stronger GCC decisions in July, joined the Saudi coalition, and on Thursday signed a defense cooperation agreement with Pakistan (ISW, The National).

Oman, the sixth, kept its airspace open, buried its dead at Sohar and took its first drone attack at Duqm, hosts the corridor talks, and refuses to charge ships for passage (Reuters, JPost).

Three things sit on the collective record. In July, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Kuwait City pressed for stronger GCC decisions, including a free-transit arrangement backed by force, while Muscat and Doha preferred talks (ISW). None of the five has publicly endorsed Treasury’s new sanctions, and the GCC has issued no statement on them (Alhurra). And the Pentagon is evaluating a smaller Gulf footprint after the war (Washington Post via Times of Israel). Tonight’s Long View takes up what Washington should ask of each of them.

The Accords Logic reads the six-month record on one question: which capitals built their security on the architecture that includes Jerusalem and Washington, and which built a second one. The record above answers without adjectives. The Emirates absorbed the most fire, took Israeli batteries, and cut Tehran off; Bahrain wrote the UN resolution; Kuwait rationed its own air conditioning rather than defect. Riyadh built a coalition and a pact that leave America out and left the door to the Accords ajar behind a nuclear agreement; Doha absorbed three attacks and flew to Tehran to mediate anyway. The Reciprocity Standard sets Washington’s next move: interceptors, basing decisions, and the coming footprint review should follow the six-month conduct file, capital by capital, and the President’s insistence that the nuclear deal runs through the Accords is the right instrument for Riyadh. The standing conclusion holds. The permanent guarantee against an Iranian bomb is the end of this regime, the Iranian people are the most underused weapon against it, and the next phase should be Israel-led and non-kinetic while America holds the blockade. The twenty-five fronts of the next six months are tonight’s essay.

MEF Observer, Saudi Arabia Is Subsidizing Iran’s Nicaraguan Outpost (Aug 28): Jose Lev Alvarez on Riyadh’s $103 million development loan to Managua and the reversal it marks: “The Riyadh that once helped Washington coerce Ortega now dilutes the financial pressure the United States applies to constrain his policies.” The kingdom, he writes, “is aiding a government aligning with an adversary that consistently launches missiles against its territory.”

MEF Observer, Baghdad Cannot Disarm Militias If It Fears Confrontation (Aug 28): Ali Mahmoud, this morning, on the arrest and two-day release of a Nujaba intelligence official and what it proves: “Militias do not need an open confrontation to impose limits on the government; they need only to raise the political and security costs until the state retreats.” His standard for Washington: “stop measuring Baghdad by its promises and start judging it by what it can enforce.”

MEF Observer, European Capital Begins to Flow Into Iran (Aug 27): Shay Khatiri on Spanish and other European investors moving into Iranian mining as Tehran courts capital to rebuild: “Preventing another construction era is key to bringing the Islamic Republic down, and preventing the flow of capital into Iran is key to that.”

MEF Online, Palestinian Islamic Jihad Operative Pushes Turkey-Iran-Pakistan Security Bloc (Aug 27): Abdullah Bozkurt on Sami Al-Arian’s claim, from his Istanbul platform, that “a very senior Turkish decision maker” described a Turkey-Iran-Pakistan alignment as Ankara’s “grand strategy,” and Al-Arian’s own line on the strait: “The Strait of Hormuz becomes your nuclear bomb.” Bozkurt weighs the claim against what Ankara has actually done.

MEF Observer, Syrian Kurds Need a New Political Voice (Aug 27): Sirwan Kajjo, two days after the SDF’s dissolution, on the generation the deal leaves without a party: “Syria’s Kurds have political aspirations that go far beyond what could be achieved through this new arrangement with Damascus.”

MEF Online, Five Things Jews (and Christians) Need to Know About October 7 and Its Aftermath (Aug 27): Dexter Van Zile on the attack as an attempt to restore subordination: “October 7 was an attempt to put Jews back in their place,” and on the inversion that followed: “The false accusation of genocide against Israel became the new language of blameworthiness.”

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CENTCOM says the mines are gone. Tehran writes its terms.

The commander’s statement. Adm. Brad Cooper posted a video Thursday evening declaring the strait’s international shipping lanes “free of Iranian sea mines”: “Over the past few months, our forces have meticulously and quietly cleared them of sea mines using a combination of Navy divers, Navy SEALs, and U.S. air power,” and, “Bottom line: Today, international shipping lanes are open and momentum is building” (gCaptain, Bloomberg). On the blockade, the figures are the command’s own: about 1,500 commercial vessels escorted carrying roughly 750 million barrels, 75 vessels redirected, three disabled, and two boarded since mid-July, with “no ships” entering or leaving an Iranian port without permission (JPost). The President told Axios in a Thursday interview, “That sucker is open” (Axios). Two facts sit beside the statement. The Joint Maritime Information Center still warns of drifting or uncharted mines and keeps its threat level at severe, and ten visible commercial vessels crossed the strait Wednesday against a 2025 average of about 138 a day (gCaptain, Reuters). Iran’s deputy foreign minister called the video “propaganda intended to create calm in global energy markets” and added, “Only Iran knows where the mines are” (UPI). The command has earned the credit for the clearance; the transit figure is the measure the market will use.

What Doha brought home. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman met Foreign Minister Araghchi, President Pezeshkian, and parliament speaker Ghalibaf in Tehran on Thursday. His ministry described talks on “efforts to de-escalate tensions” and on the “proposed interim framework establishing a temporary joint shipping corridor” with mine clearance; he said he “stressed the need to respect the sovereignty of neighbouring countries” and freedom of navigation “in accordance with international law” (Euronews, ANI). Pezeshkian’s reply set the Iranian price: “Logic dictates that the implementation of the memorandum of understanding be resumed in the same manner as before.” Araghchi wrote afterward that a return to diplomacy is “not impossible,” on one condition: “Pressure doesn’t work. The U.S. should build trust, speak respectfully, acknowledge our rights, and uphold commitments” (Times of Israel). Security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei told Al Manar that Iran is “preparing a list of conditions for reopening the strait” at the mediators’ request, that the corridor agreed with Oman has stretches in Omani and Iranian waters, and that ships would use “a designated central channel” only if Washington meets Iran’s terms (Reuters). He also called the reports of a plot against the President’s son “a lie.”

Washington’s answer. The White House said Thursday, through spokeswoman Anna Kelly, that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran”; press secretary Karoline Leavitt: “No negotiations are happening right now, and this will continue until the president feels that maybe they come to the table,” and, “We’ve had Operation Epic Fury to destroy their military. Now we have Operation Economic Outcast” (ABC, Al Arabiya). The Wall Street Journal reports the administration will not return to the June memorandum’s terms (JPost). The President posted Thursday night, “I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal,” and, asked earlier why Chinese banks have not been sanctioned, answered, “Who said I’m not? … Well, I don’t have to announce everything, do I?” (CBS, SCMP). Beijing’s foreign ministry said Friday that dialogue is the “only viable way out” and that China “opposes illegal unilateral sanctions” (AP). Treasury takes the case to the G20 finance ministers in Asheville on Monday and Tuesday, where an official says Secretary Bessent will make “direct appeals to counterparts in bilateral meetings” on Iran compliance (AFP). Two quieter instruments moved this week: OFAC published its indefinite suspension of five Iran general licenses, for remittances, academic exchanges, conferences, and sports and cultural programs (OFAC notice), and the Justice Department plans to revive maritime prize courts, last used in the Civil War era, to condemn seized Iranian tankers and cargo; the US attorney in Houston says the district is “ready to adjudicate the disposition of these captured vessels and cargo” (Bloomberg, Fox Business).

Inside Iran: the fuel admission. Vice President Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah said Thursday what the queues already showed: “Fuel production is insufficient, and because of the US naval blockade, we cannot import it” (Al Arabiya). Oil Minister Paknejad conceded sales have fallen while withholding figures that “could be used by” Iran’s adversaries; the rial closed Thursday near 2,027,000 to the dollar (Shafaq, tracker). Iran Human Rights counts at least 511 executions this year, 29 of them tied to the January protests, and its director says the purpose is “to create fear and prevent new protests”; Iran International reports a mother of two from Shahin Shahr, Leila Abolhassani, sentenced to death for “waging war against God” over the January protests, per a source familiar with her case (Al-Monitor, Iran International). HRANA reports searches of Baha’i homes in seven provinces this week, with at least eleven arrested or imprisoned (HRANA). Former Mossad chief David Barnea, at a Jerusalem ceremony Thursday, drew the line the Forum has drawn since spring: “There will be no choice, in my view, other than to escalate the economic actions, the policies, and the operations against the regime until it falls, and it will fall” (JPost). The Navy, meanwhile, will send the Theodore Roosevelt carrier group from San Diego within weeks to relieve the George Washington, and the chief of naval operations acknowledged the strain of a ninth month of carrier presence (Israel Hayom).

A failed pilot, a Kurdish adviser, and a deadline in Baghdad.

Israel tells Washington the pilot is not working. Israeli officials have told the administration, through security channels, that the Lebanese army’s disarmament pilot in the south has failed, Walla reports: “The Lebanese Army is not destroying terror infrastructure based on the coordinates provided to it by the IDF”; “There is no real friction between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah”; and, on one tunnel, “The Lebanese Army reached a point, entered the underground opening a few meters, turned around and left. They did not dare to go inside” (JPost). The report is single-sourced and neither Washington nor Beirut has answered it. The IDF answered Hezbollah’s two drones of Thursday morning with strikes on Arab Salim and the Ali al-Taher ridge near Nabatieh; Lebanon’s health ministry reports one woman killed and six wounded, and the IDF said it “will not allow the Hezbollah terror organization to operate against IDF troops in the security zone” (Times of Israel). Overnight, Lebanese television reported that Washington had cleared Ambassador Michel Issa to meet senior Hezbollah figures; by Friday morning diplomatic sources told Al-Hadath the reports “are baseless and there is no intention for any communication” (Times of Israel, Naharnet). The Carthage Doctrine keeps the file where the record puts it: a militia that will not let the state into its tunnels has not begun to disarm.

Damascus names the Kurdish commander to the palace. Two days after the SDF’s dissolution, President al-Sharaa’s Decree 164 appointed “Mustafa Khalil Abdi, known as Mazloum Abdi, as an adviser to the Presidency of the Republic”; US envoy Tom Barrack called the appointment “what real integration looks like” (SANA, AFP). Al-Monitor reports Ilham Ahmed under consideration for a Foreign Ministry post, with the weapons handover still the open question with Ankara (Al-Monitor). Sirwan Kajjo’s argument, above, is that a seat in the palace is not a party. On the southern line, Israeli artillery shelled a hill near Beit Jinn for a second night and troops entered Turnejeh near the 1974 line to search a house, the first such moves since the Amman talks; Defense Minister Katz, at Mount Hermon, described “daily activity here to thwart threats” (Times of Israel, The National). At the Security Council, Qatar’s envoy spoke for the Arab Group in condemning the Abu al-Duhur strike as “a flagrant violation of the sovereignty, security, stability” of Syria, Turkey’s envoy condemned Israel’s “reckless attacks,” and the US deputy ambassador urged both sides to de-escalate (Arab News). Riyadh and Damascus announced a joint bank the same day to move investment money between the two countries (The National).

Baghdad’s deadline, and two dead police officers. The commander-in-chief’s spokesman said Thursday that centralizing weapons is a sovereign demand with “no turning back,” that a committee will regulate arms, and that the coalition mission ends September 30 (Al Arabiya). The same day, the Karkh police chief, Brig. Gen. Hisham Muhammad Talla, and an officer were killed clearing squatters in Baghdad’s Dora district; four men were arrested, Prime Minister al-Zaidi restated the September 30 deadline for armed groups, and an Iraqi official told The National that the heavy weapons used “could suggest militia involvement” in an area long held by Kataib Hezbollah (The National). A Saudi security delegation met Iraq’s national security adviser and intelligence chief on border security, drones, and air-defense coordination (Iraqi News). Ali Mahmoud’s piece this morning supplies the test: the Nujaba official arrested on August 17 was free two days later. Govern or Get Out applies to Baghdad as it applies to Damascus: the September 30 date is worth exactly what the state enforces on October 1.

The Erez denial, the merger fight, and the commanders found.

No reconstruction before disarmament. After Channels 12 and Kan reported that the Erez crossing would reopen for goods around September 1 under American pressure, the Prime Minister and Defense Minister issued a joint denial: “There is no directive to open the Erez Crossing for goods. Israel’s policy in Gaza is clear and has not changed: There will be no reconstruction before the Hamas terror organization is disarmed and the Gaza Strip is fully demilitarized” (Times of Israel). Security officials say preparations were under way on political direction and that Germany delivered a cargo scanner (JPost). Katz added a rule for the fields: “every launch is an act of terrorism in every respect,” and every kite or balloon “will be met with a forceful response” (Times of Israel). Channel 13 reports that Hamas has tried in recent weeks to acquire fiber-optic drones through Egypt, the type Hezbollah used in the north; the report is single-sourced and Cairo has not commented (Channel 13 via Yeshiva World).

The men who held the hostages. The IDF announced Thursday that a strike in Khan Younis killed Ismail Barim, who took part in holding Edan Alexander, Matan Zangauker, and Avera Mengistu, and that separate strikes killed Bilal Raqi’i, commander of the anti-tank array in al-Shati, and Azzam Abadala of the Khan Younis Brigade, men who “continued to advance terror attacks against IDF troops and Israeli civilians while also attempting to rebuild Hamas’ capabilities, all in violation of the ceasefire agreement” (Times of Israel, JPost). Gaza health officials put the dead since the October ceasefire above 1,300; the IDF has lost four soldiers in the same period (Reuters).

The West Bank, and yesterday’s desk. The state told the High Court Thursday that it opposes the return of roughly 33,000 residents to the Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nur Shams camps, arguing that armed groups would resume operations if the army withdrew (Times of Israel). Chief of Staff Zamir said the same day that the West Bank force now runs at more than double its pre-October 7 size of about 11 battalions and will grow further for the holidays, with Golani and the Paratroopers deployed and leave cut; he attacked “politicized and unnecessary fights over budget” and said the government must restrain politicians after MK Zvi Sukkot destroyed a monument on an escorted tour (JPost). Yesterday’s Corrections Desk said the force had not been doubled this week; Zamir’s baseline squares both statements, and the desk below carries the reconciliation.

The election file. The Prime Minister released a video pressing Ben Gvir and Smotrich to merge: “They have to unite. Every time we were united, we won.” A Zman Yisrael poll has Religious Zionism below the threshold, Otzma at six, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel at six, and Eisenkot’s Yashar the largest party at 26; Ben Gvir accused Netanyahu of wanting Otzma small so he can partner with Eisenkot (Times of Israel, Times of Israel). Separately, the censor cleared reports that Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar spoke directly with Hamas officials abroad in 2024 and 2025, and that a businessman relayed messages to Hamas during the 2014 war; the Prime Minister’s Office called both “a complete lie,” and Eisenkot and Liberman cited the reports in demanding a state commission of inquiry (Ynet, Times of Israel). Prosecutors indicted two ISIS-inspired suspects Friday, including a 16-year-old who planned to attack police on the Temple Mount (JPost).

Treasury names the far-left fronts, and Michigan’s attorney general speaks.

Palestine Action, designated. Treasury designated Palestine Action, the PFLP-controlled Masar Badil, and Italy’s Autistici Inventati as Specially Designated Global Terrorists on Wednesday, with two Masar Badil officials in Germany and Brazil, finding that Palestine Action “supported numerous terrorist acts since July 2020” and that Autistici supplied digital tools to sanctioned groups. Secretary Bessent: “Far-left extremists, their fronts, and their enablers should be on notice: We will bring the full weight of our economic tools to bear” (Treasury). Israel’s Foreign Ministry welcomed the move Thursday (JNS). In London, three defendants linked to the group appeared at the Old Bailey Friday over about £1.3 million in damage at a defense contractor in Tring; the British ban itself survives on appeal after the High Court ruled the proscription unlawful in February (Jewish Chronicle, Israel Hayom). The Four D’s read the week plainly: designation is the second D, and Washington applied it to a network Britain’s own courts could not hold.

Nessel on El-Sayed. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel told The Atlantic’s David Frum that the Democratic Senate nominee’s response to the Temple Israel attack, “Hurt people hurt people,” read to many “as sort of making excuses for somebody who sought to murder over 100 pre-K school children,” adding, “You can’t make excuses for that kind of domestic terrorism,” and, “I was Jewish before I was ever Michigan Attorney General” (Algemeiner). The Louis D. Brandeis Center asked the Justice Department to examine whether Northwestern University acts as a foreign agent for Qatar under its Doha contract: “Academic freedom and the civil rights of students, faculty members and their families should never be beholden to the purse strings of a foreign government” (JNS). The ADL reports that nearly three quarters of Jewish teachers’-union members self-censor over hostility to Jews and Israel; its chief called it “a structural and cultural failure” (JNS). And House Democrats’ choice of Jared Moskowitz as ranking member on the Middle East subcommittee drew a revolt from the party’s left, with Code Pink’s founder objecting to “the most Zionist” member (Washington Examiner).

Britain’s week. The Metropolitan Police will take no further action over the “death to IDF” chant at Alexandra Palace, citing prosecutors’ advice that the evidence would likely be insufficient, while acknowledging “the concerns caused, particularly among London’s Jewish communities” (Jewish Chronicle). The police watchdog opened gross-misconduct investigations over West Midlands Police’s ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans, including the former chief constable, after evidence that an inaccurate briefing, partly sourced with AI, supported the decision; the Board of Deputies’ president said the record shows “a predetermined decision” (Jewish Chronicle). The Home Office opened a Five Eyes counter-extremism hub in London on Wednesday, aimed at online radicalization (Home Office). On the Continent, French police arrested an Irish man for an antisemitic death threat against an Australian Jewish couple near Avignon; Canada’s border agency is seeking to deport a former Iranian industry ministry official it calls “critical” to the regime’s mining revenue; and Bank Melli’s Hamburg branch is still operating under EU sanctions as Washington presses foreign branches (JPost, Iran International, Iran International).

The arsenal file, with the denial. The AP reports, citing officials, that about 65 percent of American Patriot interceptors have been expended in the Iran war, leaving stocks in Europe “beyond critical”; the Pentagon’s spokesman says the shortage claims “are false,” and NATO’s spokesman says it is “simply not the case” (AP). Both halves belong in print. What is not in dispute is the administration’s fix, already contracted: a $58.6 billion Patriot multiyear that triples PAC-3 output toward 2,000 a year, a push to quadruple THAAD, and the first European Patriot plant opening in Germany next month; the $21 billion munitions supplemental is still waiting in the Senate. The bill for a decade of hollow interceptor lines that no administration confronted until this one is the subject in Philadelphia on Thursday.

Iranian drones and missiles fired at the six Gulf Cooperation Council states between February 28 and May 17, by the Congressional Research Service’s reading of Gulf Research Center data, nearly half of them at the United Arab Emirates (CRS). The figure stops in mid-May. The Kuwaiti tanker hit off Khasab on Tuesday and the two missiles the Emirates reported on August 18 are the same war, three months on.

The fall briefings begin Tuesday. Three lunches, three fronts of the same war:

Boston · Tuesday, September 1: Bankrupt the Revolution: The Money War Against Tehran. Four days out, with the Treasury’s offensive in its second week and Chinese banks now on the President’s table: the ghost fleet, the front companies, the crypto rails, and the boycott-and-divestment campaign the Forum is building to close them.

Philadelphia · Thursday, September 3: Finish the Job: What Victory over Iran Requires. The munitions spent, the production race, the case for hunting the archer rather than the arrows, and the choice between finishing the war and freezing it.

New York · Wednesday, September 9: The Tentacles of the Outlaws: Iran’s Reach into American Life. The movement’s American franchise, and the Four D’s answer: defund, designate, debar, and force the patrons into daylight.

All briefings run 12:00 to 1:30 p.m. Seating follows annual giving: donors of $500 or more attend one event, $1,000 or more three events, $5,000 or more all events gratis; $125 per additional seat. To host an evening on the tour, write Nikki Ellis ([email protected]) and me ([email protected]). More cities and speakers to be announced.

Corrections Desk. One reconciliation from production, in the open. Yesterday’s desk said the IDF had not doubled its West Bank force this week; it had added two battalions in July. On Thursday Chief of Staff Zamir gave the baseline the circulating claim was missing: the force now stands at more than double its pre-October 7 size of about 11 battalions, and it grows again for the holidays with Golani and the Paratroopers. Both statements hold; the difference is the starting point, and the desk prints it. If today’s brief earns a case, reply; the desk reads everything.

Forward this brief to one person who thinks the Gulf states sat this war out. The Forum reads the naval advisories, the Farsi press, and the Gulf budget tables every morning; if you want that desk funded, support the work directly, and if you are near Boston on Tuesday, the money war is the subject at lunch.

Reply and tell me: six months in, which Gulf capital has read this war correctly, and what should Washington ask of the ones that hedged? I read every answer. The Long View on the next six months arrives this evening.