Middle East Insider · Issue 052 · Friday, September 25, 2026

Nothing New

Good morning. Yesterday’s edition carried the General Assembly’s Iran week through Thursday night. Overnight, Tehran put its price in writing: a seven-day plan that Abbas Araghchi himself describes as “nothing new, nothing more than what was already in the Islamabad MOU.” Saudi Arabia’s allies convened the Mecca pact, France offered soldiers and radars for Yanbu, Brent settled above $106, and Israel’s election committee barred both Arab lists, pending the Supreme Court. The lede, the Take, the Forum, one brief, and the Ask.

Seven days, and the price is the one from June.

On Thursday afternoon in New York, sitting beside Pezeshkian in front of journalists and think-tank guests, Abbas Araghchi read out the offer that Qatar’s mediators had carried to Washington earlier in the week. “We have introduced a plan to the United States through the intermediators that if certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz would be open on the end of the seventh day and talks would restart.” The clock starts the day after Washington accepts. The conditions, by the New York Times’ account: hostilities end on every front, Lebanon included, inside the seven days; the United States lifts the port blockade, releases frozen Iranian funds the paper puts at no less than $12 billion, and waives its oil sanctions; the strait opens on day seven; nuclear talks begin after that. Araghchi’s own summary is the honest one: “The conditions we have asked the US to meet are nothing new, nothing more than what was already in the Islamabad MOU, which was signed by the US President.” On timing: “I think it would be much better if it is done before the midterm election, but it depends on the US administration to decide. We don’t care about the timing.” Pezeshkian was less coy. “We don’t want it to get to the midterm elections,” he told reporters. “We wish Americans to return to the MOU before the midterms” (Iran International, NYT via Indian Express, Reuters, CBS, Iran International).

On Fox that evening, Pezeshkian told Bret Baier that Iran wants a bomb “Not at all. Not at all,” that “we said we’re willing to dilute them. It’s not a big deal. We are willing to submit ourselves to verification,” and that “we do not wish to continue. It’s America that must choose whether it wants to end this or not.” Asked about Yemen, he cut the cord in one sentence: “The Houthis are responsible for their own actions” (Fox, The National, Reuters).

Washington’s answer so far is a posture, not a paper. A White House official told the Financial Times the two sides are having “positive and constructive discussions through the mediators,” and then: “The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz, so we are not in a rush. Nearly 22 million barrels of oil left the Strait last night.” A mediator told CBS the talks are positive and early. Secretary Rubio had already said there were no breakthroughs (Indian Express, CBS). The National reports the other direction of travel: sources close to the Iranian delegation say Tehran offered no concession from its public position, insists the blockade comes off before it moves, and describes the week’s contacts as an exchange of positions that “did not amount to negotiations”; Washington and European capitals are drafting a Security Council initiative to back an international mission protecting navigation through the strait; and the Senate on Thursday narrowly rejected a resolution that would have ordered the President to end the war or seek authorization (The National). Rezaei’s four-to-five-day clock, set on Wednesday, runs out this weekend (Iran International).

“Nothing new” is the truest line anyone spoke in New York this week. Araghchi’s seven days are the June memorandum on a stopwatch: Washington lifts the blockade, releases the money, waives the oil sanctions, and quiets Lebanon and Gaza; Tehran opens the strait on day seven and then agrees to talk about the bomb. The memorandum collapsed in July because the sequence was wrong, not because the clock was slow, and the sequence has not changed. The White House’s own figure answers the offer: 22 million barrels moved through the strait Thursday night under American escort, so the passage Tehran proposes to sell back is already being taken. The Hormuz Mandate holds: the strait is reopened by the coalition’s navies, not leased from Tehran, and the Security Council text now being drafted would put the international mission on paper. Pezeshkian’s offer to “dilute” and “submit ourselves to verification” is the bid Tehran has opened with in every round since 2013, and the IAEA board referred Iran to the Security Council on September 9 because it cannot verify what Tehran already declared. The End-State Standard asks what condition Iran is in when the deal is signed; a plan that starts with the blockade lifted and ends with talks about enrichment is a plan that starts with the coalition’s leverage and ends with Tehran’s. Credit the President for the posture: “not in a rush” is the right answer to a seller in a hurry, and the Senate backed it on Thursday. The standing conclusion holds. The permanent guarantee against an Iranian bomb is the end of this regime, and the Iranian people, whom Netanyahu addressed directly on Thursday, are the most underused weapon against it.

MEF Observer, Which Forces Could Pakistan Deploy to Saudi Arabia? (Sept 22): Kaswar Klasra’s answer, written before the Mecca pact’s chiefs of staff were summoned: which formations Rawalpindi could send and how fast.

MEF Online, Inside the Houthi Advance: How Iran’s Allies Are Helping Tighten Tehran’s Grip on the Red Sea (Sept 22): Jonathan Spyer on the Iranian and Iraqi hands behind the advance Pezeshkian disowned on Fox.

MEF Observer, What Does the Iranian Regime’s Changing Position on Exiles Suggest? (Sept 23): Shay Khatiri on the regime’s list of more than 100 exiles it would now let home, the file behind Netanyahu’s line that “the power of the people will overcome the people in power.”

MEF Online, A Month from Elections, U.N. Speech Is an Opportunity for Netanyahu (Sept 24): Lazar Berman’s preview of Thursday’s address, now readable as a scorecard.

Geospatial Intelligence Unit, Nine Hundred Kilometers to Riyadh (Sept 22): The Forum’s satellite reading of the Houthi claims against Saudi Arabia, under my byline; the Houthis’ new Yanbu and Riyadh claims will get the same treatment.

Nothing new went up on meforum.org between yesterday’s card and this brief; the full list of twenty-four recent pieces is in yesterday’s edition. New reader? The frameworks in every MEF Take live in the Field Guide. Every Forum donor receives Insider Premium with our compliments; if your invitation has not arrived, write [email protected].

The Mecca pact convenes, Yanbu gets French radars, Brent holds, and Israel’s ballot goes to court.

The Red Sea. The Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani foreign ministers met on Thursday under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, condemned the attacks on Mecca and other civilian sites, and arranged “an urgent meeting of the chiefs of staff of the three countries to discuss ways to support Saudi Arabia” under a pact that treats an attack on one as an attack on all. Saudi Arabia’s top religious authority told the kingdom’s soldiers to be ready to lay down their lives until the Houthis are driven from power (Reuters). Macron said France will “send military assets, meaning soldiers, radars and defense systems to protect” Yanbu, the Red Sea terminal at the end of the East-West pipeline (AFP). The Houthis claimed strikes late Thursday on Aramco facilities at Yanbu and “a sensitive target” in Riyadh; the kingdom has confirmed no damage. Prince Faisal bin Farhan, at the UN: Riyadh is “continuing to work with our partners in the U.S.,” and Yemen’s government “is very capable of defending the territory it controls” (AP). On the ground, government forces held the Taiz-Aden road at Wadi al-Maqatirah overnight, “killing and wounding dozens,” and AFP put the dead on both sides at 150 or more in 24 hours (Reuters, AFP). Sunday’s Long View put American strikes on the Houthis by October 15 at likely; the question stays open.

Oil and the strait. Brent settled at $106.60 on Thursday, up 3.4 percent and its highest close since September 15, after touching $108; it eased to about $105 on Friday morning as the phased-deal reports weighed against the Houthi barrage. Brent is up about 2 percent on the week; American crude is down about 7 percent on talk of a diesel export ban (Reuters, The National, Reuters). Kpler saw 13 crossings of Hormuz on Thursday and 27 at Bab al-Mandeb; four very large crude carriers left the strait with two million barrels of Saudi oil each. Aramco is pumping through the East-West pipeline again, and tanker loadings at Yanbu have yet to resume (The National, Reuters).

Netanyahu, the rest of the speech. Seven fronts named from the rostrum: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iran, the militias in Iraq and Syria, and the West Bank. A Hezbollah pager and a Starlink terminal held up as props. “Israel didn’t commit genocide. Israel prevented genocide.” To Iranians: “the power of the people will overcome the people in power.” On the West Bank, about 150 vigilantes under Shin Bet investigation, set against the ramming that left Neria Leiter, a father of four, fighting for his life; Netanyahu quoted Leiter’s own post, “We have no other country. It is a privilege to defend it,” and told the ambassador, “Yechiel, my brother, your pain is immeasurable. To Neria and to all the heroes of Israel, I pledge a sacred vow. Your sacrifice will not be in vain.” Six hours in New York, nine leaders, no meeting with the President, home before Sukkot (JNS, JNS, bne IntelliNews, AP).

Gaza. Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem answered the Board of Peace’s $2.45 billion plan with “full readiness to implement the Board of Peace’s roadmap” and no mention of disarmament; Israel’s position is that reconstruction waits on disarmament, and a senior EU official said only a small share of the money needed has been collected (AP).

Israel’s ballot. The Central Elections Committee voted 18 to 5 on Wednesday to bar Ra’am and the Joint List from the October 27 election, and separately to bar Ofer Cassif and Sami Abu Shehadeh, against the Attorney General’s office’s advice that the evidence fell short of the legal threshold. The lists can appeal, the individual bans need the Supreme Court’s approval, and the court hears the cases next week (JPost, i24).

Washington. Xi told the President, by Chinese state media’s account, that Beijing supports a return to the June arrangement, the one Tehran broke; two pandas are bound for Atlanta (AP). The Senate’s Thursday vote left the President’s Iran policy where he wants it (The National).

Corrections Desk. Clear this morning. When today’s brief gets something wrong, write [email protected]; corrections run in print.

Forward this brief to one person who will read “seven-day plan” in a headline this weekend and should know it is the June memorandum with a stopwatch. The Forum reads the Farsi press, the naval advisories, and the satellite passes every morning; if you want that desk funded, support the work directly.

Reply and tell me: should Washington answer the seven-day plan at all before the strait is open under the coalition’s escort, or let Rezaei’s clock run out this weekend without a reply? I read every answer, and the sharpest ones run in the next mailbag. Chag sameach.