Middle East Insider · Issue 055 · Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Baghdad’s Last American Day

Good evening. The last American troops leave Iraq tomorrow, and this edition opens there. Then the talks, the barrel, Riyadh, and Israel.

The coalition leaves Iraq tomorrow. The militias have said what comes next.

The last American troops in Iraq, a few hundred in the Kurdistan region, leave by Wednesday under the 2024 agreement. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi: “October 1 will be a new day in the course of the Iraqi state, with the country free of any foreign military presence.” Baghdad has declared “Days of Sovereignty” and a conference for Thursday (DW, The National, Rudaw).

Kataib Hezbollah’s Abu Mujahid al-Assaf said his group will watch Iraqi airspace: “We will warn at first, and then we will shoot them down.” To Zaidi: “more than one way will be used to topple the government that doesn’t work for the people’s good” (Rudaw). Seven of the 18 Americans killed in this year’s war with Iran died in Iraq (Reuters).

The withdrawal was supposed to coincide with the militias’ disarmament. Zaidi has moved that to June 30, 2027: a 90-day halt to attacks, then a handover of weapons (DW, Kurdistan 24). Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba say they will not disarm (The National); Rubio said last week that Iraq risks “Balkanization” (Shafaq News).

The first test is the sky. Iraqi airports stopped serving Iranian airlines on Friday under the Treasury’s aviation sanctions; Kataib Hezbollah wants the “air blockade” ended by October 1 (Rudaw). On Tuesday the Treasury gave Iraqi Airways a license, good through October 28, for Najaf-Iran flights carrying only “Iranian national passengers who are religious pilgrims”: no bulk cash, no cargo for Iran’s security services, names and passport numbers reported to OFAC, and revocation if Iraq lets other Iranian flights into its airspace (Rudaw, The National).

Erbil loses its American air defenses with the troops, after more than 1,000 drone and missile attacks on the region since February; Iraqi officials told Reuters an Islamic State cell was preparing attacks to coincide with the pullout (DW, The National, Reuters).

Tehran wanted the Americans out of Iraq, and on Wednesday it gets its wish under an agreement Washington signed two years ago. What follows is a nine-month test of Zaidi’s promise: the militias keep their weapons through June, and the airspace is already the first quarrel. Washington’s remaining leverage is economic, and the Najaf license shows how to use it: narrow terms, names reported, revocable on Baghdad’s conduct. The same terms belong on the militias’ businesses.

MEF Observer, The Iran War Is the Latest Example of Repressed Warfighting Undermining Victory (Sept 28): Ira Straus on a war that bombs and pauses instead of putting a ground force and an armed Iranian opposition behind regime change.

MEF Online, Israel, Turkey, and the Contest for Syria (Sept 28): Hussein Aboubakr Mansour on Turkey’s bid for a permanent foothold in Syria, and why a larger Saudi part in rebuilding the Syrian state would deny Ankara the country.

MEF Online, What Netanyahu Didn’t Say at the U.N. Was as Telling as What He Did (Sept 28): Lazar Berman on the omissions in Thursday’s speech: no new Iran intelligence, no new threat to the regime, nothing on Saudi peace.

MEF Observer, A Two-State Solution in Yemen Is a Practical Exit, Not an Ideological One (Sept 29): Khaled Alyemany, Yemen’s former foreign minister, on a Muslim Brotherhood party leading Yemen’s UN delegation while southerners protest outside, and on two states as the way out.

MEF Observer, China’s Long Game in the Middle East (Sept 26): Imran Khurshid on how Beijing shapes the war without joining it: Chinese parts in Iranian drones, the upgraded base at Djibouti, Xi in Cairo.

MEF Observer, The Choices Saudi Arabia Must Now Make (Sept 25): Michael Rubin, four days before Tuesday’s meeting in Riyadh, on what the crown prince should do first: end “the self-defeating competition he has with the United Arab Emirates.”

Also since Friday: Potkin Azarmehr on the new manager of the supreme leader’s economic empire; Radhika Lakshminarayanan on Gulf labor nationalization and, on Tuesday, on the Gulf states between India and Pakistan; Giulio Meotti on Judith Butler’s seminars in Pisa; and Jim Hanson’s recent television appearances. Forum donors receive Insider Premium; if your invitation has not arrived, write [email protected].

The answer through Doha, ten new designations, a cheaper barrel, and a meeting in Riyadh.

The talks. Abbas Araghchi flew home on Tuesday saying Washington’s answer would come through Qatar: “The Qataris know how to reach us whenever they have the response” (Iran International). The President, on reports that he had offered sanctions relief for nuclear steps: “This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING” (Reuters). Regional officials told the AP the mediators’ proposal reopens the strait and lifts the blockade first, sanctions later, and that Washington wants inspectors back inside Iran (AP).

The sanctions. The Treasury designated ten people and firms buying weapons and parts for Iran’s defense ministry, among them the ministry’s representative in Beijing and a Pakistani group whose Saudi subsidiary was designated “in coordination with Saudi government partners” (Treasury). The State Department added Russia’s Yakovlev, supplier of Iran’s Yak-130 jets, and the shipper MG-Flot, whose vessels carried Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia in 2024 (State Department).

The barrel. Brent settled at $102.59, down 2.6 percent, as the Saudi pipeline reached half its capacity and Washington began releasing up to 40 million barrels from the reserve (Bloomberg); Kpler put last week’s Hormuz flow at 13.1 million barrels a day (CNN). NBC reported that an Iranian cruise missile hit a vessel carrying eight Marines on September 14, an attack the Pentagon did not disclose (gCaptain). Texas declared a disaster over diesel at $5.86 a gallon (Texas Tribune).

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman received Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed in Riyadh on Tuesday, in the first high-level Saudi-Emirati meeting since the two fell out over Yemen last year (Al-Monitor, AFP). The UN envoy met the Houthis’ chief negotiator in Muscat over the weekend; the WHO puts the dead since August 6 at 838 (AP, AP).

Israel. Netanyahu, at Tel Nof: “There are signs that leading up to the elections, our enemies will try to attack us”; Gadi Eisenkot asked that Yair Lapid be briefed, to establish that the threat is real “and not a political maneuver” (JPost). Both governments confirmed his Sunday visit to Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, in what appears to be the first such meeting Abu Dhabi has acknowledged (PMO, AFP).

Tuesday, October 13, 5 to 7 p.m., Manhattan: a private launch for Craig Considine’s When Marx Meets Islam. Admission is $250, including a signed copy and drinks; donors of $5,000 or more this year attend free; the address comes with registration.

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