Middle East Insider · Issue 059 · Monday, October 12, 2026

The Strikes on Riyadh’s Airport

Good morning. A Houthi missile killed 13 people at Riyadh’s main airport on Saturday, one of them an American, and the President says the United States may join Saudi Arabia’s strikes on the Houthis. This edition opens there. Then ten Forum pieces published since Friday, Tehran, the blockade, the strait, Israel and Ramallah.

A Houthi missile killed 13 people at Riyadh’s airport, one of them an American. The President says the United States may join Saudi Arabia’s strikes.

A missile struck the complex that houses the domestic terminals of King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday (AP). Saudi Arabia’s aviation authority reported 309 injured and 12 dead: four Saudis, two Bangladeshis, an American, an Egyptian, a Jordanian, a Syrian, a Palestinian and a Sudanese (Arab News). India’s embassy said one of its citizens died of his wounds on Sunday, the thirteenth death (AFP). Reuters called it the deadliest attack in the kingdom in more than a decade (Reuters).

By Sunday the airport had been hit on four of five days. One person died there on Wednesday and three on Thursday. On Sunday a projectile struck Terminal 4, killing a Pakistani resident and injuring 11; Reuters puts the week’s dead at the airport at 18. The Houthis claimed Saturday’s strike and attacks on Dammam’s airport and two Aramco facilities (Reuters). The airport remains closed; on Monday the aviation authority extended the suspension and gave no reopening time (Saudi Gazette).

Asked as he left the White House on Saturday whether the United States would join Saudi strikes on the Houthis, the President said: “We may. We’re going to look at it.” He added: “We just found out about the recent attack. So, we’ll make a decision. We move very quickly” (CNBC). Later that day he said that “what happened in Saudi Arabia is not acceptable” and that he planned to speak with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (AP). On Thursday he had said the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms (Axios); asked on Saturday whether the airport strike changes that, he answered: “Well, we’re gonna take a look” (CBS News). Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that an American was among the dead and wrote that the attacks “must stop now” (Jerusalem Post).

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday night that Saudi officials say they are running low on interceptors, and that Riyadh has called on its ally Pakistan for help and is searching abroad for air defenses. Washington has sent military advisers and has so far resisted the crown prince’s requests for military help to roll back the Houthi advance, the Journal reported; the President told reporters that the United States is in communication with the Houthis. Over the spring and summer, the Journal added, Saudi intelligence showed Iran pressing the Houthis to enter the war, though some officials judged that the group would act in its own interests (Wall Street Journal). American help to date has included intelligence, target identification and planning for the coalition’s offensive, officials have told the AP (AP).

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in Riyadh on Monday: “The events of recent weeks are serious. Our response must be equally serious” (BBC). The Saudi-led coalition called Saturday’s strike a “full-fledged war crime” and vowed to “respond decisively.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told his Saudi counterpart that Tehran is ready to help “initiate dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen” (AFP). As of Monday morning in Washington, no American decision had been announced.

An American is dead at a civilian airport, and the Houthis claimed the strike. The President has said he will decide quickly; his pledge of last Thursday concerned Iran, and the Houthis are in Yemen. Saudi officials told the Journal that their interceptors are running low. Resupply helps. Destroying launchers before they fire helps more, as the Forum argued in July. Saudi intelligence, by the Journal’s account, saw Tehran pressing the Houthis to enter the war, and Tehran now offers to mediate. The blockade, under which Kpler’s data show Iran loaded no crude in September, should stay in place. An attack that kills an American should not go unanswered.

MEF Observer, The U.S. and Israel Should Close Aviation Sanctions Loopholes on Russia and Iran (Oct 12): Leonid Baratz argues that the Treasury should designate Aeroflot and Red Wings, a Russian airline that still flies to Tel Aviv, and that Israel should close Ben Gurion Airport to it.

MEF Observer, Will the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Be the Latest to Come Undone? (Oct 11): Michael Rubin on Ilham Aliyev’s talk of Armenia as “West Azerbaijan” and what it means for the declaration signed at the White House in August 2025.

Focus on Western Islamism, European Parliament Adopts Landmark Resolution Targeting Islamist Infiltration (Oct 9): Jules Gomes on the October 8 vote, 381 to 167, for tighter checks on EU money and a request that governments consider placing Muslim Brotherhood-linked groups on the EU terrorist list.

MEF Observer, Kurdish-Arab Tensions in Syria Are Not Going Away (Oct 9): Sirwan Kajjo on the October 2 protest in Hasaka against the Syrian Democratic Forces and why the January 30 agreement with Damascus settled little.

MEF Online, October 7 Taught Israel a Brutal Lesson; Egypt Is the Next Test (Oct 9): Amine Ayoub on the October 1 waiver that released $320 million in military aid to Egypt, and why Israel should plan for a succession crisis in Cairo.

Also since Friday: Nicoletta Kouroushi on Somalia’s reaffirmed support for the Republic of Cyprus despite its reliance on Turkey; Mohammad Taha Ali on who inherits a terrorist group’s property after its defeat; Giulio Meotti on the British Greens’ vote to define Zionism as racism; Abdullah Bozkurt on an alleged mafia figure’s rise in Erdogan’s Turkey; and Jose Lev Alvarez on bringing Cyrenaica into the Abraham Accords. Forum donors receive Insider Premium; if your invitation has not arrived, write [email protected].

Tehran calls Washington’s reply insufficient, a fourth ship is disabled at the blockade, tankers are hit in the strait and off Oman, and the Houthis tighten the siege of Taiz.

Tehran. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Washington’s reply to Iran’s seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz was “insufficient,” state media reported Sunday. The Americans “have accepted some of our conditions, while others remain unclear,” he said, and Iran is “no longer in the process of responding” to them (Reuters). A day later the Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, said Iran is still reviewing the reply and will answer through intermediaries (Reuters).

The blockade. A U.S. fighter jet disabled the Panama-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman on Saturday after its crew ignored repeated warnings; the crew was unharmed. Central Command says it has disabled four commercial vessels and turned around 135 since July 14 (Central Command). Kpler’s data show that Iran loaded no crude or condensate in September, and its head of crude analysis says revenue from those exports could reach zero by mid-December if the blockade holds (Iran International).

The strait. A drone hit the small tanker Petro Dolphin at the Sohar anchorage off Oman on Sunday, and two Indian seafarers are missing (Maritime Executive). India’s shipping minister said a projectile also set fire to the tanker Valthera in the Strait of Hormuz (Argus).

Oil. Brent crude settled Friday at $104.72 a barrel and traded between about $102 and $106 on Monday morning. The President said Friday that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel (Reuters); the Treasury licensed sales of Russian diesel the same day, until April 7, 2027 (Treasury).

Yemen. The Houthis tightened their siege of Taiz, where military sources on both sides told AFP that fighting killed more than 60 people in 24 hours (AFP).

Mandelblit takes the stand at Netanyahu’s trial, the UAE says the flydubai co-pilot aimed for Ben Gurion’s terminal, and Abbas puts off elections until 2027.

Israel. Avichai Mandelblit, the attorney general who indicted Benjamin Netanyahu in 2020, testified at the prime minister’s corruption trial on Sunday and Monday, called by the defense. He conceded that he did not approve every police action or review the 315 examples of favorable coverage alleged in the bribery case, and insisted that he authorized the investigation. Likud called for the trial to be canceled (Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post). The Forum’s poll of polls, with fieldwork through October 8, puts Netanyahu’s bloc at 53 seats, the opposition at 54 and the Arab parties at 13; a majority is 61. Israel votes on October 27.

The flight. The UAE’s top prosecutor said Friday that the co-pilot who attacked his captain on flydubai’s September 30 flight to Tel Aviv meant to fly the plane into the passenger terminal at Ben Gurion Airport. His statement said the co-pilot “drew inspiration” from the September 11 attacks, studied the route on two earlier flights, confessed, and said he acted alone (AP).

Ramallah. Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday canceled the Palestinian legislative election set for November 28 and scheduled presidential and legislative votes for September 11, 2027, citing “obstacles posed by Israeli measures.” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar called that “yet another ridiculous lie” (Reuters and the Jerusalem Post).

Monday, October 12, 1 p.m. Eastern: the Forum’s podcast hosts David Betz of King’s College London on Islamism and the risk of civil conflict in Britain.

Tuesday, October 13, 5 to 7 p.m., Manhattan: a private launch for Craig Considine’s When Marx Meets Islam. Admission is $250, including a signed copy and drinks; donors of $5,000 or more this year attend free; the address comes with registration.

In November I will give private lunch briefings on American policy after the Iran war, noon to 1:30 p.m., in San Francisco on November 10 and Los Angeles on November 16, and will also be in Texas. If you would like to meet, or to host an evening for the Forum, reply to this email.

Corrections Desk. Clear this morning. When this brief gets something wrong, write [email protected]; corrections run in print.

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