Middle East Insider · Issue 060 · Tuesday, October 13, 2026

The Warning to the Houthis

Good evening. The President warned the Houthis on Tuesday that he “will never forget” their attacks on Saudi Arabia, said they act “probably at the behest of Iran,” and promised a decision on Iran “very soon,” as the Saudi-led coalition struck Sanaa and the Houthis fired missiles at Riyadh and Dhahran. Also in this edition: Britain’s case against Iran over the plot at RAF Fairford, five new Forum pieces, and Israel two weeks before it votes.

The President says the Houthis act at Iran’s behest and promises a decision on Iran “very soon.” The Saudi coalition strikes Sanaa, and the Houthis fire missiles at Riyadh and Dhahran.

The President wrote on Tuesday that the Houthis “learned their lesson a year ago when we bombed the HELL out of them,” have “emerged again, probably at the behest of Iran,” and are “purposefully trying to drive up Oil Prices, probably prior to the U.S. Elections.” He added: “I’m not running in the Elections, I’ve already won, IN A MASSIVE LANDSLIDE, but I’ll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget!” (CBS News). Before leaving for Alaska he told reporters that the Houthis “are behaving very badly” and that he might ask Turkey’s president to help Riyadh: “President Erdogan, I think, would do as I ask” (Reuters). He would not say whether American forces will strike the group (Jerusalem Post), and on Iran he said: “We’ll make a decision on Iran very soon” (Times of Israel).

The Saudi-led coalition said on Tuesday evening that it had struck the Yemen Petroleum Company’s al-Sabaha station outside Sanaa and other sites in an operation aimed at “neutralizing the capabilities of Houthis” to threaten the kingdom, Yemen and international waterways, and that the group used sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah and Dhamar to “supply its arsenal of missiles and drones” (Reuters). It had warned civilians away from the station in the afternoon, its first such order for the city since the war flared up again in July (AFP). The Houthi-run health ministry said two people were killed in an attack on an oil company in Hodeidah province (Times of Israel).

The Houthis’ military spokesman, Yahya Saree, had promised a “harsh and painful” response and named Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran and its Riyadh refinery as targets (Reuters). The coalition said it intercepted ballistic missiles fired at Dhahran and Haradh on Tuesday night, with debris falling in a residential area of Dhahran, and then four cruise missiles and two drones over the Riyadh region and the south (Arab News). The Saudi cabinet, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, said the Houthis would “bear the consequences” of their attacks (BBC).

Erdogan told the crown prince by telephone on Tuesday that Turkey would stand by Saudi Arabia (Reuters). Riyadh’s airport remains closed (Gulf Business).

Brent crude settled Monday at $106.65 a barrel, its highest close since September 15 (Reuters), and traded about 1.5 percent lower on Tuesday as traders weighed more Russian diesel (CNBC). The national average for gasoline is $4.34 a gallon and for diesel $6.28 (AAA).

The President has said the Houthis act at Iran’s behest and that he will not forget their attacks. That is the right reading, and Tehran should take it seriously. The Houthis stopped last year when American bombs made the cost too high, and they resumed when they judged the cost had fallen. Riyadh cannot settle this from the air alone: it intercepted missiles over Dhahran on Tuesday night, and Aramco’s headquarters is now a named target. Washington should help the Saudis strike the launchers, the depots and the Iranian supply lines behind them, and say so before the Houthis reach a refinery. The blockade on Iran should hold. The warning will be weighed in Tehran by what follows it.

MEF Observer, It’s Time for Oman to Close the Door on the Houthis (Oct 13): Michael Rubin argues that Oman, where the Houthis’ chief negotiator has lived for years, should expel the group’s representatives, and that the Gulf Cooperation Council should consider suspending Oman, and Washington sanctioning it, if it does not.

MEF Observer, The West Must Stop Deferring Definition of Islamic Practice to Clerics (Oct 13): Davood Moradian, writing after the Archbishop of Canterbury’s office withdrew an interfaith award from a Pakistani cleric, argues that Western governments treat clerics as the voice of Muslim societies and sideline secularists and reformers.

MEF Online, Time to End the Long Iran-Nicaragua Relationship (Oct 13): Todd Bensman, in an excerpt from his Heritage Foundation report, argues that the American campaign against Iran and its proxies in Latin America must include Daniel Ortega’s Nicaragua.

MEF Online, Saudi Arabia’s Worst-Case Iran Scenario Hasn’t Even Begun (Oct 12): Michael Rubin warns that the larger danger to the kingdom is Iranian-backed unrest and sabotage in the oil-rich Eastern Province.

MEF Observer, The Legal Framework Governing Pakistan’s Forces in Saudi Arabia (Oct 12): Kaswar Klasra on the law that governs Pakistani troops in the kingdom, and why their presence gives no automatic mandate for offensive action in Yemen.

Also new: the recording of Monday’s podcast with David Betz of King’s College London. Forum donors receive Insider Premium; if your invitation has not arrived, write [email protected].

Britain says the Revolutionary Guards almost certainly directed the plot against a U.S.-run air base, at least 27 other governments join the United States in recognizing the finding, MI5 reports more than 50 Iran-linked arrests in a year, and Tehran summons the British ambassador.

The finding. Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the House of Commons on Monday that the September 27 incident at RAF Fairford, the U.S.-run air base in Gloucestershire, was “highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard” (Prime Minister’s Office). Police arrested five men near the base early that morning and found gasoline in three vans and no explosives (AP). Seven men in their 20s have now been arrested and all are on bail (Counter Terrorism Policing); none has been charged (AP).

The response. Britain sanctioned two Iranians: Ruhollah Bazghandi, whom it identifies as head of counterespionage operations in the Guards, and Shahram Ali Reza Tamarzadeh Jakki, a facilitator of the Zindashti criminal network (Foreign Office). The United States and at least 27 other governments joined Britain in a statement that condemns “Iran’s use of violent attacks, including the acts of lethal plotting, arson, sabotage, cyber-attacks, and other hybrid activities” and recognizes Britain’s attribution (State Department).

MI5. Director General Ken McCallum said in his annual threat update on Tuesday that the service’s Iran-linked operations have led to more than 50 arrests in Britain in twelve months. “Sadly, much of this aggression has been aimed at British Jewish communities,” he said, and he described “Iranian ambitions to come at harder targets, like military sites” (MI5). He told reporters that Fairford “is not unique” (AP). Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood described the method: “They pay criminals or exploit naive volunteers, attacking our country and its citizens while maintaining an air of plausible deniability” (Home Office).

Tehran. Iran’s Foreign Ministry rejected the finding and called the affair a “clumsy false-flag operation” (ministry statement). On Tuesday it summoned the British ambassador and told him that Britain “must, as soon as possible, provide the documents and evidence supporting its accusations,” or Iran “will seriously reconsider its bilateral relations” (Reuters). Asked on Monday whether the United States would act against Iran over the plot, the President said: “We’re going to see” (Fox News).

The strait. The British navy’s maritime trade office has reported six ships struck in the strait and off Oman since Sunday, five tankers and a container ship (gCaptain). Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Tehran and Oman have an understanding on a temporary shipping route, separate from any reopening of the strait (CBS News).

An unexploded bomb kills an Israeli ninth grader on a school hike, Channel 12 reports that Netanyahu pressed the President to renew the fighting against Iran before the election, Monday’s polls put his bloc at 49 seats or 61, and members of Congress ask the health department to weigh barring CAIR from federal grants.

The north. An unexploded munition killed a ninth grader and injured 24 pupils and teachers on a school hike on the Ramim Ridge near the Lebanese border on Monday; the army said it was likely a Hezbollah cluster bomb left in the area (Times of Israel). The boy was Elazar Yair Wilensky, the youngest of five children (Times of Israel). Lebanese media reported Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Tuesday (L’Orient Today).

The election. Three polls taken Monday disagree: Channel 12 and Walla give Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 49 seats, and Channel 14 gives it 61, the number needed to govern. The Forum’s poll of polls now puts the bloc at 55, the opposition at 52 and the Arab parties at 13. Gadi Eisenkot said Tuesday that “the prime minister is not fit to carry out another operation” against Iran (Times of Israel). Channel 12 reported Tuesday evening that Netanyahu urged the President last week to renew the fighting against Iran before the election; an American source told the network that Trump said he could “go ahead and prepare” but made no commitment, and the Prime Minister’s Office denied that Netanyahu seeks a war before the vote (Times of Israel).

Washington. Members of Congress led by Rep. Chip Roy, a Texas Republican, asked Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Tuesday to examine whether CAIR and four other Islamic organizations should be suspended and barred from federal grants (Daily Signal). The letter’s figures match the Forum’s July report, Hidden Handouts, which found that 14 terror-linked and extremist organizations received nearly $80 million from the department. Kennedy announced a review of the allegations against CAIR on June 9 (Daily Signal).

Tonight, 5 to 7 p.m., Manhattan: a private launch for Craig Considine’s When Marx Meets Islam. Admission is $250, including a signed copy and drinks; donors of $5,000 or more this year attend free; the address comes with registration.

Wednesday, October 14, 3 p.m. Eastern: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry, the Forum’s weekly update on events in Israel.

In November I will give private lunch briefings on American policy after the Iran war, noon to 1:30 p.m., in San Francisco on November 10 and Los Angeles on November 16, and will also be in Texas. If you would like to meet, or to host an evening for the Forum, reply to this email.

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