Middle East Insider · Issue 065 · Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Tehran Waits for November

Good afternoon. The Middle East Forum has consolidated its mailing lists, so this may be the first Middle East Insider to reach you: it is the Forum’s daily brief on the Iran war and the region, written by me, Gregg Roman, the Forum’s executive director. Every Forum donor receives the premium edition; if you give and your invitation has not arrived, write [email protected]. Today: three Iranian officials tell Reuters that Tehran is dragging out the talks to deny President Trump a win before November 3; Defense Secretary Hegseth met Netanyahu at Ovda air base on Monday evening; the Revolutionary Guards say they shot down an American drone over the Strait of Hormuz; and Britain’s Typhoons will fly defensive patrols over Saudi cities.

Three Iranian officials tell Reuters that Tehran is prolonging the talks to deny President Trump a win before November 3; Hegseth meets Netanyahu and Katz at Ovda; the Guards claim an MQ-9 shot down over the strait; Lavrov sits with Araghchi in Tehran; and the Tehran daily Kayhan calls for strikes on Israel’s nuclear sites.

Reuters reported this morning, citing three senior Iranian officials and an insider, that Tehran “has deliberately prolonged talks with the US to try to weaken Donald Trump politically ahead of November’s US midterm elections”; one of them said, “Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war,” and “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory” (Reuters). President Trump said in September: “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election,” and “What they don’t realize is that I’m not running” (Fox News); Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said today that the talks continue (Fox News).

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz on Monday evening at Ovda air base in the south, where American refueling planes and fighter jets are deployed, in a visit that was not announced; Axios reports that the two governments are discussing “potentially resuming major combat operations against Iran,” and the Pentagon declined to comment (Axios, The National). Vice President Vance, asked on Monday whether he would also endorse Netanyahu, said he was “not anti-endorsing” him and “not pro-endorsing him,” and “I’m not getting involved in the Israeli elections” (Time).

The Revolutionary Guards said today that they shot down an American MQ-9 drone over the Strait of Hormuz early this morning, the 54th they claim to have destroyed; neither report carries an American response (Iran International, Dawn). The Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, said today that Iran would answer any American strike “in equal measure, if not more forcefully” (CNBC). Kayhan, the Tehran daily whose editor-in-chief is appointed by the supreme leader, wrote on Sunday that Iran should answer an American attack on the Pickaxe Mountain complex near the Natanz nuclear site by striking Israel’s nuclear facilities, and that American and Israeli threats deserve a “harsh and merciless” response (Iran International).

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, spent Monday in Tehran; Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said beside him, “We welcome any initiative that leads to security from within without the presence of foreign forces,” and Lavrov repeated Russia’s proposal for a security framework of Iran and the six Gulf states (Iran International, Al Arabiya). President Trump told reporters on Monday, “Russia’s done very little for Iran” (Iran International). Reuters describes Tehran’s seven-day plan, sent through Qatar: the strait reopens within seven days “under Iranian control” if Washington lifts the blockade, eases the restrictions on Iranian oil exports, releases frozen assets and ends hostilities on all fronts (Reuters, Iran International).

Three officials have told Reuters that the regime is waiting for November 3. I take Tehran at its word. The answer is to deny it the thing it is waiting for: the blockade should hold through the midterms and after them, the Houthi launchers that killed 73 Yemeni recruits in Shabwa should be struck, and the timing of any strike on Pickaxe Mountain should be President Trump’s to choose, not Tehran’s. I take no side in Israel’s vote, and the name of the next prime minister does not change the case.

MEF Online, Who Really Makes Decisions in Tehran? (Oct 19): Saeid Golkar of the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga and Jason Brodsky, republished from The Cipher Brief: Mojtaba Khamenei “has been neither seen nor heard from since his elevation as supreme leader.”

MEF Observer, The Failure of Washington’s Iraq Gambit (Oct 19): Ali Almrayatee, a former combat interpreter for American forces in Iraq: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s September 30 deadline to disarm the militias passed without action, and Laith al-Khazali, a sanctioned operative of the Iran-backed militia Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, has been made a deputy prime minister.

Focus on Western Islamism, Leftists Sow Chaos in France with Help of Young Muslims (Oct 19): Dexter Van Zile on France’s unrest: “Many of the rebels and looters engage in their lawless acts under Palestinian, Moroccan, and Algerian flags.”

The Shabwa toll reaches 73, Britain’s Typhoons will fly defensive patrols over Saudi cities, a Houthi missile fired at Riyadh is intercepted, and the kingdom postpones its investment conference to 2027.

Shabwa. The dead at the al-Alam training camp are now 73, all new recruits, a senior Yemeni official told AP today; Shabwa’s governor, Awad Ibn al-Wazir, said they were aged 18 to 20, that more than 200 were wounded, and “This had nothing to do with front lines” (AP). Shabwa’s media office had first reported 53 on Monday; Rashad al-Alimi, who chairs Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, promised a “firm response” (BBC). Government forces have advanced since Sunday in the Saber district south of Taiz (Asharq Al-Awsat), in the offensive called Dawn of Yemen, begun October 5 (Arab News).

Britain, and Riyadh. The Ministry of Defence said today that RAF Typhoons “will fly defensive counter air missions to support the protection of Saudi cities and critical national infrastructure against aerial attack” and will not strike the Houthis; Defence Secretary Wes Streeting called the Houthi attacks “absolutely despicable” (UK Ministry of Defence, AP). The spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, Turki al-Maliki, said this morning that a Houthi ballistic missile fired at Riyadh was “intercepted and destroyed”; an explosion was heard in the north of the city, near King Khalid airport (Arab News, AP). The Future Investment Initiative Institute, an arm of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, postponed its tenth conference, set for Riyadh on October 26 to 29, to 2027 (SPA, CNBC).

The warnings, and oil. The U.S. mission in Saudi Arabia, in an alert dated October 18, told Americans in the Middle East: “Be aware of potential flight cancellations, airspace closures, and travel disruptions,” and that “Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas” (U.S. Embassy Riyadh). Brent traded above $110 this morning, its highest since May (CNBC); regular gasoline averages $4.28 a gallon and diesel $6.32 (AAA).

Israel resumes commercial shipments to Gaza, the World Food Programme cuts aid to 500,000 people, a strike in Gaza City kills a couple, and the police chief says the law in Judea and Samaria “applies to everyone.”

Gaza. Israel said on Monday that commercial shipments would resume after a days-long halt: COGAT, the Defense Ministry’s liaison to Gaza, said merchants had reported that Hamas withdrew its demand for 10,000 shekels a truck (Reuters). The Norwegian Refugee Council said on October 5 that at the pace allowed at Kerem Shalom, the one crossing open for aid, the 500 or more truckloads of winter shelter materials in the pipeline would take more than seven months to enter (NRC). The World Food Programme cut its Gaza caseload this month from 1.6 million people to 1.1 million for lack of money and needs $450 million for Gaza and the West Bank through March 2027 (WFP). An Israeli airstrike on an apartment in Gaza City killed Akram Yassin and his wife, Dina Abu Baker, medics said today; the Israeli military said it struck a militant in the area (Reuters).

The West Bank. Police arrested ten Israelis at dawn on Monday over the attacks on Heidi Levine of the Washington Post and on the diplomats at Taybeh; Police Commissioner Danny Levy said the law in Judea and Samaria “applies to everyone, regardless of identity or affiliation” (Times of Israel). Two items from earlier this month: Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority’s president, on October 10 put off the Palestinian elections to September 11, 2027 (Reuters), and the UAE’s chief prosecutor said on October 9 that the flydubai co-pilot who attacked his captain on September 30 meant to crash the plane into Ben Gurion’s terminal (AP).

The vote. The army sets up at least 850 polling stations at its bases this evening, open through October 27; a poll by the Walla news site gives Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party 23 seats, Likud 19 and the Netanyahu bloc 48 (Times of Israel), and the Forum’s poll of polls stands at 54 for the Netanyahu bloc, 52 for the opposition and 14 for the Arab parties.

Hamburg’s court names the Quds Force behind the plot against Josef Schuster and Volker Beck, Berlin and Tehran summon each other’s ambassadors, and Chikli says France’s civil war “has already begun.”

Hamburg. Berlin summoned Iran’s ambassador on Monday over the verdict of October 15, in which Hamburg’s Higher Regional Court sentenced Ali S., 54, a Danish citizen of Afghan origin, to eight and a half years, and Tawab M., 43, who also lived in Denmark, to four and a half: the court found that Ali S. took his orders from the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, scouted Josef Schuster, the president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, Volker Beck, the president of the German-Israeli Society, and a Berlin kosher supermarket; Presiding Judge Petra Wende-Spors: “Iran is trying to export its terror to Germany” (ZDF, Jüdische Allgemeine). That evening Tehran summoned Germany’s ambassador to protest the “contemptuous attitude of certain German officials” and the EU’s envoy over “baseless” accusations, and denied any role (Der Spiegel, Israel National News).

Chikli. Amichai Chikli, Israel’s minister of diaspora affairs, wrote on X over the weekend: “I was convinced that the Right coming to power in France would trigger a civil war. It turns out I was being optimistic: it has already begun!” He added, “I wish France victory over barbarism, despite its betrayal of Israel,” and “Belgium and Britain, you are probably next” (JNS).

The measures. Europe’s steps against Israel this month: Britain’s consulate in Jerusalem ended its functions on October 8 under Israel’s order of September 8, Israel’s answer to the British-led sanctions on trade with the settlements (AFP); Luxembourg’s draft law to restrict imports from the settlements, approved by its cabinet on Friday, a day after its parliament rejected an arms embargo (Paperjam); and the call by Belgium’s foreign minister, Maxime Prévot, after Taybeh, “for EU sanctions against those responsible for this violence and those who support them,” and France’s Foreign Ministry’s demand that Israel “put an end to these acts of terror” (Politico). None is an arms embargo. Ariel Muzicant, the president of the European Jewish Congress, told the Jerusalem Post that Jewish leaders are lobbying “to block the sanctions until we know what the elections will bring” (Jerusalem Post).

Israel votes on Tuesday, October 27. Israel Insider with Ashley Perry airs online tomorrow, Wednesday, October 21, at 3 p.m. Eastern.

The Forum’s Michael Rubin gives lunch briefings on Israel’s next war: Philadelphia, November 5; Washington, November 6; Miami, November 18; Boca Raton, November 19; Palm Beach, November 20. My own, on American policy after the Iran war: San Francisco, November 10; Los Angeles, November 13; San Diego, November 16; and Texas. To meet, or to host an evening for the Forum, reply to this email.

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