Israel Votes in Twelve Days

The Knesset, Jerusalem, July 5, 2018. Photo: Gary Lee Todd, released to the public domain under CC0.

Israel votes on Tuesday, October 27, in its first election since October 7 and the first since the war with Iran began. This Long View is written for readers outside Israel: what is at stake, how the system works, the fights the parties are having, who leads each list, and what can happen after the polls close. The Forum endorses no party or candidate. Its poll of polls at israelvote.meforum.org supplies the numbers below, and every figure there links to the pollster’s own report. The stakes are open to every reader; the rest of the edition is for premium subscribers.

Israel Votes in Twelve Days

What the October 27 election is about, who leads each of the lists, and what can happen after the polls close. A guide for readers outside Israel, with no side taken.

On Tuesday, October 27, Israelis choose the 26th Knesset. The vote falls three years and twenty days after the October 7 massacre, eight months into the war with Iran, a year into the Gaza ceasefire and one week before Americans vote in their midterms. Israel last voted in November 2022; the coalition elected then held 64 seats until the Knesset dissolved itself on July 17.

The Economist’s tracker says this “could be one of the most consequential elections in the country’s history.” Jonathan Spyer, the Forum’s director of research, wrote on October 6 that many observers call it “the most consequential to be held in the Jewish state for a generation.” Here is what rides on it.

The war with Iran. The next government decides whether Israel resumes strikes on Iran, and when. The prime minister, asked on Army Radio on Wednesday about a strike before the vote, said: “It is not convenient for us, it’s no good.” The chief of staff, by a report the Times of Israel carried on October 8, told American generals that a strike in the coming weeks could delay the election. The President wrote the same day that the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.”

Gaza, a year on. The State Department marked the anniversary of the peace summit by saying “we are making real progress toward a demilitarized Gaza.” The Washington Institute’s review of the year finds that “Hamas remains Gaza’s only functioning government one year after the ceasefire. Its members are still armed,” and that the Board of Peace’s officials appear to be waiting for Israel’s election to begin implementation.

Who serves. The Haredi, or ultra-Orthodox, parties say they will join no government that does not first pass a law exempting yeshiva students from the draft. Most of the other parties say they will join no government that does not draft them. The Jewish People Policy Institute finds 64 percent of Israelis opposed to restoring the exemption. No government can be formed without answering it.

The courts. Yariv Levin, the justice minister, said at a conference this week, in remarks the Jerusalem Post carried on Tuesday: “If the Right wins the elections, there will be different Supreme Court justices in the next term, a different judicial system.” Two-thirds of the court will be replaced in the coming term, by his figure, and a 2025 law gives the next Knesset a larger hand in choosing them.

October 7. There is still no state commission of inquiry into the massacre. The opposition parties promise one as a new government’s first act; Religious Zionism opposes a commission whose members the Supreme Court’s president would name, and Likud has not said. A Channel 12 poll found 66 percent for a state commission.

The money. The Bank of Israel puts the cost of the wars since 2023 at about 350 billion shekels, about 114 billion dollars, half of it borrowed. Fitch kept Israel at A with a negative outlook on Monday and warned that a long caretaker period, or a repeat election, would delay what the deficit needs.

Washington. The ten-year aid agreement, 3.8 billion dollars a year, runs out in 2028, and talks on its successor are under way. The Gaza plan, the Saudi track and the Iran decision wait on the result. The President, asked on Tuesday whether he intends to endorse a candidate, said: “We haven’t even thought about it,” and then: “I may be doing something.”

The Forum takes no side. In September it opened a poll of polls at israelvote.meforum.org, which holds every seat projection published this year, 326 as of Wednesday night, each linked to the pollster’s own report. Its average on Wednesday gave the Netanyahu bloc 54 seats, the opposition parties 52 and the Arab parties 14. Sixty-one are needed to govern. Shmuel Rosner, who runs his own poll, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency this week: “we see a very small chance that either bloc will be able to reach 61 seats.”

“Only one polling house puts the Netanyahu bloc at 61, and no poll puts his opponents there without the Arab lists.”

The rest of this edition, the mechanics, the fights, the leaders and the scenarios, is for premium subscribers. Forum donors receive Insider Premium; if your invitation has not arrived, write [email protected].