Middle East Insider · Issue 062 · Thursday, October 15, 2026

The Missile over Medina

Good morning. The Saudi coalition says it shot down a cruise missile over Medina this morning, which the Houthis deny; two merchant ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz, the second and third of the war; and the President, at a rally in Arizona, said of the question of whom to deal with in Tehran: “that’s going to end very soon.” Also in this edition: Ghalibaf says America “must be punished,” Katz warns Hezbollah, Ronen Bar sues the prime minister, two new polls, four Forum pieces, and this morning’s Long View on the election.

The coalition reports a Houthi missile over Medina and Aramco’s top floors are gutted, two ships go down in the strait, and the President says of Iran: “that’s going to end very soon.”

The coalition’s spokesman, Turki al-Maliki, announced this morning the “interception and destruction of a cruise missile in the Medina region”; the Houthis called it “a shameless and brazen lie” (CBS News). Overnight the coalition also shot down a drone over the kingdom’s eastern region (The National), and for Wednesday it reported seven missiles and two drones intercepted over Riyadh, Dhahran and Al-Kharj, with one person injured by debris in the capital (AP).

The damage at Aramco’s headquarters is worse than the Energy Ministry’s “limited fire.” People with direct knowledge told Reuters of a fire across several floors, and one said that “the top three floors of building, where the office of Aramco CEO Amin Nasser is located, were severely damaged”; operations continued, with some staff told to work from home (Reuters). The Houthis told shipping companies and workers to leave Saudi airports and oil facilities (Reuters), and their spokesman, Yahya Saree, claimed a “precise and direct” missile strike on King Khalid airport on Wednesday night (DW). Mohamed al-Bukhaiti of the Houthis’ political bureau told the AP that outside powers had reached out to stop the attacks as part of a ceasefire deal (AP). Riyadh’s airport stays closed until Sunday night by the latest notice (Aerospace Global News).

In the strait, two ships went down in a day. The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank after Tuesday’s strike, its 21 crew evacuated, and the bulk carrier Cape Dao, hit on September 23, sank nearby; they are “the second and third vessels to have sunk since the US-Iran war began on February 28,” Reuters found in the IMO’s casualty data (Reuters, Seatrade Maritime). The Guards claim a mine; a former Navy officer told CNN “a drone strike is more likely” (CNN). At least ten vessels have been attacked in or near the strait since Sunday, a high since the war began (AFP). Central Command answered the Guards’ navy commander on Tuesday, “IRGC’s navy commander has no navy,” and said it had helped Gulf partners move more than 19 million barrels through the strait on Monday (Iran International); on October 6, it disclosed, American forces destroyed an Iranian dhow spotting for attacks on Navy ships (CENTCOM).

No American decision on the Houthis has been announced. The President told a rally in Arizona on Wednesday night: “We don’t need any help with Iran. We’ve done so well there,” and, of not knowing whom to deal with in Tehran after the strikes on its leaders, “that’s going to end very soon” (Fox News). Egypt’s foreign minister said Cairo is seriously contemplating joining the Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish defense pact (Egypt Independent). The Theodore Roosevelt carrier group is to relieve the George Washington in the region (The Hill).

Brent crude settled Wednesday at $106.06 a barrel, up 0.35 percent; West Texas Intermediate rose 1.01 percent to $95.09, a three-week high (Reuters). Brent fell back to $103.78 by 7:30 a.m. GMT on Thursday, down 2.2 percent (Reuters). The national average for gasoline is $4.33 a gallon and for diesel $6.32 (AAA).

A missile over Medina, if the coalition’s report holds, means the Houthis are firing at the whole kingdom; the ships sinking off Hormuz mean Iran is doing the same at sea. It is one campaign, run from Tehran, with the aim Iranian officials have stated: keep oil high until the American vote. The President says the question of whom to deal with in Tehran will end very soon. The Forum’s view is that it should end with strikes on the launchers, the depots and the supply lines from Iran, flown with the Saudis, and with the blockade held. And Oman, which houses the Houthis’ negotiators, should be told to show them the door, as Michael Rubin argued this week.

MEF Observer, Iraq Is Still in Kuwait’s Security Calculus (Oct 15): Radhika Lakshminarayanan on the threat from Baghdad as Kuwait now sees it: not Saddam’s territorial claims but an unresolved maritime border, Iranian influence and Iran-backed militias, and the storming of Kuwait’s consulate in Basra in April.

MEF Online, Navi Pillay’s Nobel Peace Prize Is a Macabre Statement Against Israel (Oct 14): Giulio Meotti on the record of this year’s laureate, from Durban in 2001 to a 2009 report that praised Hamas for its stated commitment to human rights law.

MEF Observer, What Ongoing Impeachment Struggles Say About Iran’s Factionalism (Oct 14): Shay Khatiri reads the hardliners’ motions to impeach Iran’s labor and foreign ministers: if the establishment saves both, the reformists and the military are closing ranks around the regime.

MEF Observer, The U.S. Should Support Dubai over China in Peru’s Ports (Oct 14): Jose Lev Alvarez on DP World’s bid to extend its Callao concession to 2066 against COSCO’s Chinese-financed port at Chancay, and why Washington should back the Emirati operator.

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Ghalibaf says the United States “must be punished,” Pezeshkian says the regime has never been under such pressure, no one is charged at Fairford, and Katz tells Hezbollah what a new war would cost it.

Tehran. Parliament’s speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on television on Wednesday: “They break their promises... America must be punished. America must change its behavior” (CBS News). President Pezeshkian told officials on Thursday: “Never in the 48 years since the Islamic Revolution have we been under such pressure and faced such difficulties” (Iran International). Official data put year-on-year inflation near 90 percent (Iran International).

Britain. At Woolwich Crown Court, jurors heard the police interviews of Mostafa Sepahvand, one of three men accused of an Iranian plot against Iran International’s journalists: “We could hit them. We had the address. But I swear to the God who is up there we did not do anything.” All three deny the charges; the trial resumes on Thursday (Iran International). At Fairford, the police’s last update is October 8: seven men on bail, none charged (Counter Terrorism Policing).

Lebanon. Defense Minister Israel Katz, from the security zone on Wednesday: “If Hezbollah joins Iran in an attack on Israel, it will be dealt a heavy blow and lose additional territory in southern Lebanon, in the areas of Nabatieh and the Litani, which will become part of Israel’s permanent security zone,” and “more than one million Shiites will become displaced in Lebanon” (Times of Israel). Israeli aircraft struck Mansouri twice overnight (L’Orient Today). Israel Hayom reports that Iran has told Hezbollah to decentralize its command so that units can fight if the leadership’s communications are cut (Israel Hayom). Iraq’s prime minister, in Riyadh on Wednesday, pledged that Iraqi territory would not be used against the kingdom (Al-Monitor).

Channel 13 puts Netanyahu’s bloc at 51 and Channel 14 at 62, Netanyahu says Iran’s regime will not fall before the vote, Ronen Bar sues him for three million shekels, Eisenkot promises Hamas gone in 18 months, and the chief of staff warns of escalation on every front.

The election. Channel 13’s weekly poll on Wednesday gives the Netanyahu bloc 51 seats, down four, the opposition bloc 50 and the Arab parties 15, with Yashar at 20 and Likud at 18 and both Ofer Winter’s and Yoaz Hendel’s lists at four (Times of Israel); Channel 14’s gives the bloc 62, with Likud at 29 (Yeshiva World). The Forum’s poll of polls stands at 54, 52 and 14. Netanyahu told Kan on Wednesday night that Iran’s regime will not fall before the election, “No, I don’t think that’s realistic,” but that “This regime must go... It’s either us or them” (Times of Israel); on Army Radio he said Itamar Ben-Gvir will not be defense minister: “Defense will remain in Likud” (Times of Israel). Gadi Eisenkot, at the Gaza border on Thursday: “Within 18 months of taking office as prime minister, Hamas will no longer rule the Gaza Strip” (Times of Israel); Likud asked how he would destroy Hamas without permission from “your partners, Mansour [Abbas] and [Ahmed] Tibi” (Jerusalem Post). President Herzog, in Baku as the diplomats voted, said elections are not a “civil war”; when he rose to address the regional summit there, the delegations of Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Kuwait and the Palestinian Authority left the hall (Times of Israel).

The Bar suit. Ronen Bar, the former Shin Bet chief, filed a three-million-shekel libel suit against the prime minister on Wednesday over a post saying Bar “decided not to call and update the prime minister” in the early hours of October 7, 2023; the filing calls that “a particularly grave and malicious, yet baseless, accusation” (Times of Israel). Netanyahu’s answer: “The Shin Bet security detail, your subordinates who are with me 24/7, could have reached me within minutes” (Jerusalem Post).

Security. The chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, on Wednesday: “the potential for escalation has increased”; the 98th Division has moved to the West Bank, and settler violence “must be condemned and eradicated using every tool available to the State of Israel” (Times of Israel). Settlers set fire to a mosque in Mikhmas, between Ramallah and Jerusalem, early on Wednesday (AFP); ACLED records 39 settler incidents a day this month against about 20 in September (ACLED). In Gaza, the Guardian reports that Israel has not let the American contractor begin the Board of Peace’s outpost for 150 international troops; the Board expects approval after October 27 (Jerusalem Post).

Washington. An HHS spokesman, asked about the letter from Rep. Chip Roy and eight colleagues citing the Forum’s report on grants to Islamist groups, said the department “will take appropriate action whenever there is evidence of fraud, abuse, or other violations of federal requirements” (Texas Scorecard). Israel’s outgoing government approved a billion shekels for 12 Apache helicopters on Wednesday and signed the deal with the United States the same day (Times of Israel); Smotrich, the finance minister, called the deal “a mistake” (Globes).

This morning’s special edition of the Long View is a guide to Israel’s election for readers outside Israel: the stakes, the fights, every party leader, and the scenarios for the day after. The stakes are open to all; the rest is for premium subscribers.

Next Wednesday, October 21, 3 p.m. Eastern, online: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry, the Forum’s weekly update from Israel, six days before the vote.

I will give private lunch briefings on American policy after the Iran war, noon to 1:30 p.m., in San Francisco on November 10, Los Angeles on November 13 and San Diego on November 16, and will also be in Texas. If you would like to meet, or to host an evening for the Forum, reply to this email.

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