Middle East Insider · Issue 063 · Friday, October 16, 2026

The President’s Friday

Good afternoon. The President said on the South Lawn today that Israel has “been very helpful to Saudi Arabia” against the Houthis and that Saudi membership in the Abraham Accords is possible “maybe more than ever”; on Thursday night he ruled out nuclear weapons and ground troops in Iran; and Treasury cut an Iraqi bank and two Iranian offshore banks out of the dollar. Also today: the Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile over Yanbu; Houthi missiles killed five at Aden’s presidential palace; Riyadh said Iran arms the Houthis and Tehran denied it; two Israeli polls put Yashar ahead of Likud; settlers beat a Washington Post photographer near Ramallah; and Israel struck Lebanon after a Hezbollah drone. Four Forum pieces and a correction follow.

The President says Israel has “been very helpful to Saudi Arabia” and the Accords are possible “maybe more than ever,” rules out nuclear weapons and ground troops in Iran, and Treasury cuts an Iraqi bank out of the dollar.

On the South Lawn today, before leaving for a rally in Georgia, the President was asked whether Riyadh should accept Israeli help against the Houthis. “I do, I think they will,” he said, and “Israel’s been very helpful to Saudi Arabia”; asked whether Saudi membership in the Abraham Accords is possible again: “Yeah, I think so, maybe more than ever” (Times of Israel). Ynet reports that American officials asked the chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, whether Israel could strike the Houthis, and that Zamir told the head of Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, that it could widen the war and force the election to be postponed (Ynet). Riyadh has not said it wants Israeli help; its deputy minister for public diplomacy, Rayed Krimly, said on Thursday that the kingdom keeps “direct channels of communication with the Houthis” through Oman, and that the kingdom has not asked Iran to mediate (Al Arabiya).

No decision on strikes has been announced. ABC, CNN and CBS report that the options prepared for the President include the GBU-43, the “mother of all bombs”; a White House official said: “We do not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist” (ABC News). On Newsmax on Thursday night the President said of that bomb, “This is just an extremely large bomb,” and “I wouldn’t use nuclear. We don’t have to”; asked about troops on the ground in Iran: “No, I don’t see that, I don’t see it” (CNBC). On the Pickaxe Mountain site: “We may have to go there,” and “We’ll knock it out fast”; on the war: “One way or the other, it’ll end very soon” (Arab News). His pledge of October 8, no attack on Iran before November 3, stands.

Treasury on Thursday designated the International Development Bank for Investment and Finance, “an Iraqi bank that also supports Iran’s terrorist proxy militia groups,” two Iranian offshore banks, one affiliated with Bank Mellat and one at Chabahar affiliated with Bank Shahr, four exchange houses and seven employees of a Shahr Bank affiliate that moves money for the National Iranian Oil Company (Treasury): 16 individuals and 10 entities in all (Reuters). FinCEN told banks the same day to report the regime’s diversion of religious tithes, or khums (Treasury).

Tehran answered on Friday. President Pezeshkian, in Yerevan: “We have always been ready for dialogue. They think they can force us to surrender, but we will not bow to coercion” (CBS News). Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh: “What the United States failed to achieve in the war against Iran, it has neither achieved nor will achieve at the negotiating table” (Iran International).

Brent crude settled on Thursday at $105.92 a barrel, down 0.1 percent, and West Texas Intermediate rose 3 percent to $97.97 (Reuters). On Friday Brent was up 3.2 percent at $109.34 by 12:41 p.m. and WTI at $100.67, “crossing $100 for the first time since September 21” (Reuters); they settled at $109.86 and $101.41 (Newsquawk). The national average for gasoline is $4.33 a gallon and for diesel $6.33 (AAA).

The President today endorsed Israeli help to Saudi Arabia against the Houthis and said normalization is possible again; that is the order the Forum has argued for, Israeli and American strikes on the Houthi launchers and depots first, and Riyadh’s entry into the Accords as the result of a win rather than the price of one. Israel struck the Houthis at Hodeidah and Sanaa in 2024 and 2025 and can do so again, and the chief of staff’s objection, that a strike could widen the war before the election, is the reason American planes should fly first. The President said on Thursday that the war will end “very soon”; whether the Houthi launchers are hit or left standing when it does is the decision that matters. Until that decision comes, the blockade should hold and Riyadh should accept the help it is offered.

MEF Online, The West Needs a Coherent Plan for Tackling Iran’s Proxies (Oct 16): Jonathan Spyer, from The Spectator: the Houthis belong to “the relatively coherent alliance” Tehran built, the Saudis to “the dysfunctional and divided gathering” of the West and its partners, and the Houthis’ advance toward Bab el-Mandeb threatens the export route Riyadh has used with Hormuz contested.

MEF Observer, Iran’s Stretched Forces Look Desperate as Attacks in Sistan and Baluchistan Mount (Oct 16): Shay Khatiri on Jaysh al-Adl’s attacks on government personnel since December, the regime’s charge that “some Arab states” are behind them, and why the Baluch are the insurgency Tehran can least afford now.

MEF Observer, The End of Qatar’s Moment? (Oct 15): Michael Rubin on a strategy of “state capture”: Doha spends “around eight times more per year to influence U.S. politicians and professors than does AIPAC,” and is running short of the money to keep paying.

MEF Online, U.S. Lawsuit Details Turkey Links in Hamas and Iranian Cryptocurrency Financing Networks (Oct 16): Abdullah Bozkurt reads the 396-page complaint against Binance filed in North Dakota in June: accounts run from Turkey that moved “tens of millions of dollars in cryptocurrency” with networks linked to Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Guards.

Also new at meforum.org: Potkin Azarmehr on the Afghan investment row at Chabahar, Giulio Meotti on Granada’s cancellation of Ariana Harwicz, Amine Ayoub on Abbas’s delay of Palestinian elections to 2027, and Lazar Berman on the October 7 warning reports. Forum donors receive Insider Premium; if your invitation has not arrived, write [email protected].

The Saudi-led coalition reports a ballistic missile toward Yanbu, five die at Aden’s presidential palace, Riyadh says Iran arms the Houthis and Tehran denies it, and the UKMTO says the Cape Dao has not sunk.

The kingdom. The Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis in Yemen said on Friday that “in the past hours, we intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile over Yanbu,” the Red Sea terminal of the East-West pipeline, along with two cruise missiles over the Red Sea and three drones (AFP). On Thursday Houthi missiles hit the Maashiq presidential palace in Aden, killing five and wounding 16 by the Yemeni health minister’s figures; the prime minister was in the compound and unhurt (AFP), and on Friday night two missiles hit Aden’s airport, with no casualties reported (CBS News). The coalition’s spokesman, Turki al-Malki, said the Houthis have attacked King Khalid International Airport 20 times this month, killing 17 and wounding 333 (Dawn); the airport stays closed through October 17 (Gulf News).

Riyadh and Tehran. Krimly, in Thursday’s briefing, said Iran “continues to arm, train and support the Houthi militia in violation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions and in violation of its commitments in the Beijing agreement” (Al Arabiya), and of the Houthis: “we asked them to meet in Muscat, Oman, and they refused” (Dawn). The Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said on Friday that Iran “rejects any claim that Iran has played a role” in the Houthis’ operations and offered to mediate (CBS News).

The strait. The UKMTO’s joint advisory of October 15 says the bulk carrier Cape Dao, reported sunk, “is not sunk” and her status is disputed; the GFS Pride “caught fire, drifted and sank on 14 October,” and the Guards’ claim that it struck a mine has “no substantiation” (UKMTO). Its weekly overview reports 12 attacks this week, 10 of them in the strait, and says it is “struggling to accurately report true number of attacks with majority of vessels attacked refusing to report” (UKMTO). Central Command: “The United States and regional partners control the strait as commercial vessels continue to transit despite unwarranted IRGC aggression” (gCaptain).

Tehran and London. At Woolwich Crown Court on Thursday, Mostafa Sepahvand testified that a man he identified as a Guards officer living in Britain threatened him by video call in 2024: “He said we’re gonna kill your mother” (Iran International). Inside Iran, an Iraqi national was hanged in Rasht on Sunday on a charge, which he denied, of spying for Saudi Arabia, at least the 17th execution for espionage this year by Iran Human Rights’ figures (Iran International).

Two polls put Yashar ahead of Likud with neither bloc at 61, Liberman calls Eisenkot “Benny Gantz two,” settlers beat a Washington Post photographer near Ramallah, Israel strikes Lebanon after a Hezbollah drone, and Gaza’s merchants stop importing after Hamas demands fees.

The election. Maariv’s poll on Friday gives Yashar 21 seats and Likud 18, the blocs 51 each, the Arab parties 14 and Hendel’s list four; “neither bloc would reach the 61 seats needed for a majority,” and Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 48 to 41 as the better prime minister (Jerusalem Post). The Times of Israel’s poll on Thursday gives Yashar 26 and Likud 20, the opposition 54, the Netanyahu bloc 49 and the Arab parties 13 (Times of Israel); the Forum’s poll of polls stands at 54 for the Netanyahu bloc, 53 for the opposition and 13 for the Arab parties. Menachem Lazar, Maariv’s pollster: “Things will be decided at the very last moment, probably because of the two small parties hovering above and below the electoral threshold” (Jerusalem Post). Avigdor Liberman called Eisenkot “Benny Gantz two” on Friday and said his aim is “overtaking Likud and entering negotiations to form a government with Netanyahu from a position of strength”; Eisenkot, without naming him, said the “October 7 government” “must not remain in office for even another day” (Times of Israel). The President, asked on Newsmax whether he trusts Netanyahu: “In the world of politics I don’t trust anybody” (Times of Israel).

The West Bank. Masked settlers attacked olive harvesters at Abu Falah, near Ramallah, on Friday morning and beat Heidi Levine, a Washington Post photographer, who was hospitalized; the attackers “were kicking me for like 10 minutes,” she said (AP). The army condemned the violence and said a journalist was hurt; soldiers later shot a village council member who the army said ran toward them with a sharp object; the Palestine Red Crescent reported 14 wounded in six places (AP). The State Department: “we condemn criminal violence by any party in the West Bank and support appropriate investigations as well as legal accountability for those responsible”; the police said they would investigate (NPR).

Lebanon. After Hezbollah flew an explosive drone at Israeli forces in the security zone on Thursday, Israeli strikes that evening killed three people in Nabatieh and the Tyre district and hit West Bekaa for the first time in three months; Israel said it had taken the Ali al-Taher ridge in the Nabatieh region, and Katz said the army would “prevent the enemy from re-establishing itself in the area” (Naharnet). Hezbollah’s Hassan Fadlallah said on Thursday of the car seized at Dahr al-Baidar last week with about 800 kilograms of C-4 and TNT (Arab News): “The vehicle and its cargo belong to the resistance”; Rubio told President Aoun to “hold accountable all those who ordered, financed, and directed the shipment” (CBS News).

Gaza. Gaza’s merchants stopped coordinating commercial imports after Hamas demanded about $3,200 per truck and required them to sell about 30 percent of their goods for cash, COGAT said; Nickolay Mladenov called the practice “unacceptable” and said it “must end immediately” (JNS). Long War Journal, citing the Guardian, reports that Israel has not let the American contractor begin the Board of Peace’s outpost for 150 international troops, and that the Board expects progress “only after Israel’s October 27 elections” (Long War Journal).

The Forum’s election guide for readers outside Israel, Israel Votes in Twelve Days, covers what is at stake, the fights between the parties, who leads each list and what can happen after the polls close. The vote is on Tuesday, October 27.

Israel Insider with Ashley Perry, the Forum’s weekly update from Israel, airs online on Wednesdays at 3 p.m. Eastern; the next is October 21, six days before the vote.

I will give private lunch briefings on American policy after the Iran war, noon to 1:30 p.m., in San Francisco on November 10, Los Angeles on November 13 and San Diego on November 16, and will also be in Texas. If you would like to meet, or to host an evening for the Forum, reply to this email.

Corrections Desk. Thursday’s edition said that two ships went down in a day and that the bulk carrier Cape Dao had sunk, following Reuters’ reading of the IMO’s casualty data. The UKMTO’s joint advisory of October 15 says the Cape Dao’s status is disputed and that she is not sunk; the GFS Pride caught fire, drifted and sank on October 14. When this brief gets something wrong, write [email protected]; corrections run in print.

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