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Weekend strategic essays on where the region is heading, not just where it has been.
Iran
+7
Nov 1, 2026
•
15 min read
Two days before the vote: what a Democratic House could and could not do about the Iran war, the fight against Islamist influence and the alliances in the region, and why the decisions that matter will be made in the eight weeks before it sits.
Oct 25, 2026
16 min read
Israel votes on Tuesday with Iran’s threats, the prime minister’s mushroom-cloud post, and a record number of complaints before the elections committee. Israel’s law already says what happens to a vote under attack. The longer question is why a state whose rules can be rewritten by 61 votes treats every election as a matter of survival, and what the next Knesset can do about it.
Islamist Influence
Oct 18, 2026
18 min read
France’s worst unrest in years began at a high school in Créteil that was missing a mathematics teacher. What the state left in the suburbs, who moved in, which party stood at the school gates this fall, and what the Islamists did.
+6
Oct 15, 2026
What the October 27 election is about, who leads each of the lists, and what can happen after the polls close. A guide for readers outside Israel, with no side taken.
+5
Oct 11, 2026
10 min read
In the war on Iran, the United States has a cyber advantage it has used quietly and a messaging habit it keeps funding loudly. The next phase should reverse the order.
Oct 7, 2026
12 min read
In July 2023 a paper presented in the Knesset was right about Gaza and changed nothing in time. Three years later the warning concerns Israel’s alliance with the United States, and the decisions that fall between now and January.
Oct 4, 2026
14 min read
A program of mine did not work, a partnership did not fit, and the war has not ended the regime in Tehran. Ten scholars on what to do after a plan fails, and what changes at the Forum.
The Long View
+4
Sep 27, 2026
17 min read
Thirty-two years after it opened a two-person office on K Street, the Council on American-Islamic Relations holds the label, the microphone and the money. An examination of CAIR’s financial discrepancies, hidden foreign financing, and the moderate American Muslims it actively silences.
Sep 20, 2026
The President is weighing whether to “go in and annihilate” Iran’s regime. Tehran has sent its conditions through Doha. How the Forum sets the odds of renewed American and Israeli strikes, and what would move them.
+3
Two quiet weeks from this newsletter, and the reason for them: we have been turning the Middle East Forum into an organization that reads everything, forgets nothing, and shows its work.
US Policy
Sep 6, 2026
13 min read
Twenty-five years after September 11, six commanders from three armies, the courage each one showed, and the covenant their citizens owe them.
Aug 31, 2026
Five years after Kabul, the Times says the lesson is learning how to quit. The evidence reads the other way: America does not police an empire, it preempts chaos, and every time it stops, the bill arrives.
Aug 30, 2026
Young Iranians in exile watched the left deliver power to the theocrats once. Twenty of them are now the West's clearest voices against doing it again, and the fight they are pointing at is inside Iran.
Aug 28, 2026
Six months in, the shock is over and the attrition has begun. Twenty-five fronts the coalition has to manage between now and February.
Aug 23, 2026
What a war with Turkey would look like, and how to hold Syria's sky without fighting one.
+2
The crucible of Israel's next prime minister.
Aug 17, 2026
11 min read
It is a military operation. Treat it like one. Plus: the file on Tehran Trita. Free for every reader.
Aug 16, 2026
A first look at the book I have begun writing: the IDF's lone soldiers, from the volunteers of 1948 to the post-October 7 generation. Free for every reader.
Aug 9, 2026
8 min read
The Long View: The Mossad reassigned the men who promised to topple Tehran. The mission stands; the instrument was wrong. Plus the week in review and what to watch.
He says he isn't DSA. The source code powering his Michigan Senate victory tells a very different foreign policy story.
Aug 2, 2026
The Long View: Saudi Arabia holds a nuclear deal it can only unlock by normalizing with Israel, and a Pakistani pact it can invoke without normalizing anything. The record of how Riyadh is choosing, in its own words.
Jun 22, 2026
A mined strait, a brand-new "Strait Authority," billions unfrozen — and a deal that rewards all of it.
Jun 18, 2026
The 60-day window - not the signing - decides whether this refinances the regime or corrodes it
Jun 17, 2026
6 min read
The full U.S.-Iran text is public — and Israel was still bombing the missile supply chain on June 8.